Ben Brey of
and the 🐿️ - Live broadcast recorded at 8pm EST on Sunday 7th December.After the sport chat, Benny and the 🐿️ discuss some convex bond ideas, SCOTUS tariff rulings, the market implications of the National Security Strategy and the last real week of the (underwhelming) 2025 IPO season.
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Pod Summary
Macroeconomics: Fed Week and Tariffs (Minute 2)
Discussion on the upcoming “Fed Week.” Uncertainty regarding a rate cut has been removed - no surprises are expected.
Discussion on SCOTUS “IEPA” (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) ruling in the context of national security and tariffs.
A disconnect is highlighted between the bond market (pricing in hawkishness) and equity/precious metal markets (which are not reacting similarly).
Nuclear & Tech (Minute 5)
A trade recap involving Oklo Inc. and volatility surrounding Jensen Huang’s appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast, which triggered a “desperation” signal that Benny bought into for a quick 12% gain.
Skepticism expressed regarding Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and nuclear construction costs compared to China. AI/tech growth estimates rely heavily on power availability, which remains a “science project.”
Gold and Silver Miners (Minute 8)
🐿️explains his decision not to re-enter gold and silver miner positions despite taking off the hedge on his gold position.
IPO Market & Private Equity
Discussion on the “last real week of IPOs”
The autumn IPO season is described as a failure (”two out of ten - see me after class”). We see the weak IPO market as a “canary in the coal mine” for broader risk appetite.
Comments on a new private funding round for SpaceX intended to value it higher than OpenAI. 🐿️ reckons Musk should keep SpaceX private to avoid public market scrutiny.
National Security Strategy & Dollar (Minute 17)
Analysis of a newly published 33-page National Security Strategy. The 🐿️ sees the focus on reshoring and immigration as inherently reflationary and has some thoughts on the dollar.
Bond Market “Gap Trade” (Minute 27)
Detailed explanation of a potential “short squeeze” trade in 10-year Treasury futures.
The Thesis: There is a supply gap in “pristine” on-the-run 10-year bonds because the US Treasury stopped issuing 30-year paper in the late 90s/early 2000s (Clinton/Paul O’Neill era).
The Trade: Buying defined-risk call options to target a potential “right tail” event.
Final Treat (Minute 31)
Final trade idea from Benny: Schlumberger (SLB). The stock has broken its 300-day moving average, and the hosts view oil services as a hated sector that is technically breaking out from a long base.
See you on Thursday night at 7pm EST when
- everybody’s favorite MacroTourist - is joining us LIVE!If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.
