Ben Brey of
and the 🐿️ - Live broadcast recorded at 7pm EST on Sunday 30th November. Also viewable on YouTube.Pod Summary
Market Recap & Fed Commentary (Intro)
Thanksgiving Market Action: Noting a sharp short-covering rally leading up to Thanksgiving, followed by a light half-day session on Friday.
Fed & Monetary Policy: Was the rally was driven by “monetary meds” - i.e., the market repricing a December rate cut after the Fed “bent the knee.” Highlighting how multiple Fed speakers (Williams, Daly, Collins) came out in unison to manage expectations.
Speculative Assets: There was a noted correction in speculative sectors (AI, crypto proxies like MicroStrategy) around OpEx week, with some names down significantly (26% on average). Benny points out that while the S&P 500 recovered, many speculative names have not fully bounced back.
AI & CapEx Concerns: Discussion of the rotation in AI stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Oracle). They question the durability of a growth market where investors worry about “market share of CapEx” rather than actual revenue or total addressable market (TAM).
New Investment Idea: CDMOs & Chinese Pharma (Minute 6)
Sector Focus: The Squirrel introduces a contrarian bullish idea in the Healthcare sector, specifically Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs). He sees them as the semiconductor foundries for drugs.
The focus is on WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics (listed in Hong Kong).
Thesis: These stocks were battered by U.S.-China geopolitical tensions and the “Biosecure Act” but have recently been removed from certain blacklists.
Valuation: Looking “incredibly cheap” on a PEG (Price/Earnings-to-Growth) basis.
Risk Management: The Squirrel highlights technical levels that allow for tight risk management if the trade goes wrong.
Precious Metals: Gold vs. Silver (Minute 13)
Silver’s Outperformance: Benny highlights a chart comparing Gold, Silver, and the Gold/Silver ratio. Silver has been “ripping” (trading near $57), while Gold is lagging slightly (5-6% off highs).
Gold/Silver Ratio Signal: A collapsing Gold/Silver ratio often signals the late stage of a precious metals bull market and a high “risk-on” environment.
Macro: Dollar, Bitcoin, & Consumer (Minute 23)
US Dollar (DXY): The Dollar Index failed at the 200-day moving average again. Benny maintains a bullish view on the Dollar, Gold, and Bonds simultaneously—a “defensive” stance similar to 2008.
Emerging Markets (EM): The Squirrel notes that CTA models (via DBMF ETF) are increasing exposure to Emerging Markets, potentially betting on a weaker dollar?
Bitcoin:
Price Action: Bitcoin dropped ~$3,000 at the Sunday open. Benny views this as a “check engine light” for the post-holiday rally.
“Digital Gold” Debunked: Benny aggressively rejects the “digital gold” narrative, arguing Bitcoin acts more like a speculative tech stock than a reserve asset.
Closing Thoughts & Outlook (Minute 34)
US Consumer:
Black Friday Surprise: Retail data was stronger than expected. Benny attributes some of this to “inflation protection checks” in New York and bargain-hunting behavior.
Caution: Despite the good data, the hosts remain skeptical of a sustained consumer boom, citing mortgage rates and potential tariff impacts.
Santa Claus Rally: The Squirrel is cautious and not chasing a year-end rally (”Don’t be a hero”). He remains long risk assets but is not adding leverage.
Oil & Venezuela: Brief mention of OPEC and Venezuela. Oil services companies might be the best play if Venezuela’s regime changes or stabilizes, rather than the commodity itself.
See you on Thursday night at 7pm EST!
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