Ben Brey of
and the 🐿️ - Live broadcast recorded at 7pm EST on Thursday 4th December. Also available on YouTube.Benny and I were delighted to host our first guest on the show - “Mr Retail” himself, Jeff Macke! Jeff founded Macke Asset Management after getting his MBA from Stanford in the 1990s. He wrote for TheStreet.com, Minyanville and Yahoo Finance. He was also a founding cast member of CNBC’s Fast Money and an anchor on Yahoo Finance.
Jeff learned his trade on the knee of his dad who was the CEO of Target for over a decade. You could say US retail runs through Jeff’s blood. You can find his subscriber content over at StockMarket TV as well as at Wall Street Beats where he is a partner there with Benny.
Pod Summary
Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Reality (Minute 3)
We discuss the disconnect between negative economic news (e.g., a Gallup poll predicting a spending drop) and actual robust data from retailers like Walmart and Dollar General.
Macke argues that despite inflation and tariffs, the consumer remains resilient, and holiday spending will likely surprise to the upside, as it often does.
Discussion on recent headwinds: the new administration’s immigration policies, student loan repayments restarting, tariffs, and the government shutdown. Macke views these as “defined negative catalysts” that are now in the past.
The “Hallmark movie” analogy: Despite the suspense and negativity, the consumer story usually has a happy ending with strong holiday spending.
Retail Trends: Denim vs. Athleisure (Minute 15)
Mackey identifies a shift from athleisure (Lululemon) back to denim. He notes that even a small growth shift (3% to 5%) is massive for denim retailers.
American Eagle (AEO): Macke is bullish, citing their successful marketing campaigns (e.g., Sydney Sweeney, Travis Kelce) and ability to tap into the denim trend.
Lululemon (LULU): Described as a “murder pit” over the last 12 months; the trend of wearing activewear everywhere is fading in favor of structured clothing like jeans.
Gen Z & “Experiential” Spending Myths (Minute 22)
Jeff debunks the myth that Gen Z only buys “experiences” and not “stuff.” He argues that human nature doesn’t change that drastically and Gen Z is actively shopping for physical goods.
The “experience” economy (Marriott, airlines) may have hit a wall because they raised prices too high. Consumers are behaving rationally by rejecting $1,700 domestic flights in favor of local shopping.
Malls and physical stores are reportedly packed, contradicting the narrative of a consumer recession.
Restaurants (Minute 31)
Macke has been shorting full-service and fast-casual restaurants, viewing them as overvalued. Jeff is no fan of “slop bowls”!
Chipotle (CMG): Criticized for continuing to open new stores despite negative comparable store sales (comps). Macke views this as a “value trap” where management is ignoring fundamental problems with the product and model.
Dutch Bros (BROS): Identified as a potential opportunity, taking market share from Starbucks, which is struggling with structural and labor issues.
Some Singe Stock Thoughts (Minute 40)
Aritzia (ATZ: TO): A high-conviction long pick from Macke. This Canadian retailer is expanding in the U.S. and hitting a “sweet spot” of affordable luxury for young professional women. It recently posted 28% comps.
Costco (COST) & Walmart (WMT): Macke admits to being a “trapped long” in these but considers them excellent, tariff-proof businesses that own their customer base. He advises never to short them.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): While the main brand struggles, its sister brand Hollister is performing very well with Gen Z.
Conclusion (Minute 55)
The consumer bottom may have already passed. With bad news (tariffs, shutdown) in the rearview, retailers are poised for a squeeze. Macke advises against betting against the consumer right now and suggests buying dips in quality names.
See you on Sunday night at 7pm EST!
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