Ben Brey of
and the 🐿️ - Live broadcast recorded at 7pm EST on Thursday 20th November.Pod Summary
Introduction
An excited 🐿️ is in Perth ahead of Day 1 of the first Ashes cricket Test Match (England versus Australia).
Discussion begins about recent standout events in markets: NVIDIA’s results, Walmart’s positive performance in the S&P.
Conversation on defensive stocks (healthcare, Staples) and their recurring role as “funding” positions. Example of Clorox evaluated as a steady, if unexciting, cash generator for investors.
Uranium miners noted as having been punished as much as neo-cloud operators since October.
3 Minutes
Benny and 🐿️ review the effect of US deficit reduction, oil price shock, and sharp rate hikes post-pandemic. Describes how these changes led to a double-digit GDP in the US and a consumer-driven mini-boom post-lockdown.
Shifts to present day, highlighting weaker economic fundamentals, contractionary policy (tariffs, student loans), and fading fiscal stimulus.
Debate about the Federal Reserve’s next move: rate cuts unlikely without significant deterioration or a market correction.
Allusions to the Q4 2018 playbook and institutional dynamics between the Fed, markets, and political uncertainty.
Noted: the financialization of the economy—market declines now directly pressure policymakers.
7 Minutes
Watch the financials. Extended focus on money center banks, trading dynamics, and capital markets.
Discussion of catalysts for a financial sector short trade and the role of conferences (e.g., upcoming Goldman event) as possible triggers.
Structures of bank revenue breakdowns: M&A/advisory fees versus trading/lending margins as volatility trends lower.
Topics on interest rates, balance sheet dynamics, and why traditional models for banks do not always apply anymore.
17 Minutes
Technical discussion: VIX levels, volatility targeting funds, and the impact of systematic trading on swings.
High beta vs low volatility trends, normalization post-earnings, and the role of large tech (Nvidia, JPMorgan) as market “generals”.
Systematic selling, deleveraging, and broader risk aversion described as drivers for market moves.
23 Minutes
Shift to foreign exchange: yen leads in drops among non-USD currencies, discussion broadens to euro, sterling, macro catalysts.
Deflationary forces from China and changes in global capital flows, including a move away from USD denominated debt in parts of EM.
Bond bullishness and portfolio allocations by global investors highlighted; speculation on possible currency shifts and where risk may show up next.
Examination of the recent moves in Bitcoin and the influence of spot ETFs on market structure. Discussion of breakeven levels for institutional holders and implications for flows.
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