Ben Brey of
and the 🐿️ - Live broadcast recorded at 7pm EST on Sunday 23rd November. There will be no show this Thursday (US Thanksgiving - enjoy the Turkey coma!).Pod Summary
Introduction
Analogies between the volatility of sports outcomes and market moves, mention of Bitcoin’s bounce over the weekend and the theme of collateral collapse in markets.
Minute 2
Deep dive into U.S. dollar money supply, commercial bank deposits, and the importance of collateral for leverage. Highlights significant losses in system-wide collateral since Covid, affecting market liquidity and risk.
Crypto deleveraging discussion. Luna token collapse mentioned as a reference event, with exchanges using crypto tokens as leverage and how rapid liquidation mirrors risk-off episodes in traditional markets.
Recent recovery in crypto collateral after lows. Comparison to gold and other asset classes, discussing multi-trillion dollar swings in global collateral and market drawdowns, pointing to a “carnage” akin to the 2022 bond crash.
Minute 9
Global equity market performance breakdown. U.S., China, South Korea, and EM trends discussed. Calls out the relative resilience of defensive ETFs vs. high beta EM/tech plays. Reviews sector-specific moves (energy, industrials, banks).
Examining performance extremes, especially in high beta names (bitcoin miners, uranium stocks).
Minute 14
Outlook discussion: what would it take for markets to “turn around?” Notes Fed rate cut odds, economic prints (like PPI). Stressing the magnitude of lost collateral as deflationary. Market needs leverage but we have weak credit demand.
Comparative analysis between current markets and historical periods (Q4 2018, COVID crash). Explores how previous Fed interventions impacted asset performance, especially tech and defensive sectors.
Minute 21
Portfolio updates and macro themes for year-end. Hosts debate active manager positioning, potential for a late year “risk on” rally, and recency bias in performance management.
Energy, defense, and currency moves covered. Reviews recent events in Russia/Ukraine affecting European defense stocks, winter energy forecasts, and weather-driven commodity moves. Benny discusses the “four horsemen” (oil, dollar, vol, AI capex).
Dollar and currency markets discussed, with focus on yen, euro, real, and peso. Highlights impact of DXY strength on global risk appetite and asset flows.
Final reflections on volatility, institutional vs. retail participation, curve steepness, and flow of funds into bonds vs. stocks. Explores possible gamma squeezes, rotation into defensives, and spread strategies for high yield credit.
See you on Sunday night!
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