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Miguel da Fonseca's avatar

Hi Rupert, what an opportune and thoughtful basket you have here! I thought I would just share my concern and ask what you would consider to be the bearish case, though.

The bullish case is clear, reasonable and sound for the European Defence (with a c ;-) sector, but what if Russia were to take over Ukraine or sign a peace treaty in the near-term keeping the currently occupied territory? Now, I'm not so naive that I'd assume they would be content with that nor do I think Europe is in denial anymore, but I could be wrong about the latter, and demand should dry up potentially for a long time. I think everyone is feeling the zeitgeist of new troubling times and that "we are not going back" is here to stay (even if it won't help elect the US Dems), but it's an investment concern nonetheless*. I welcome any passing thoughts you may have on the topic and thank you so much for sharing your hard work on this topic!

*I know, this is not investment advice from a cartoon rodent. ;-)

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The Blind Squirrel's avatar

Hi Miguel - IMO the genie is out of the bottle. US security guarantees are no longer viewed as reliable. Putin even less so. Ask a Moldovan. I don't think the Europeans have any choice but to invest in self-reliance.

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