Blind Squirrel Macro
Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod
Pod: Career Risk and Sirens' Songs
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Pod: Career Risk and Sirens' Songs

Blind Squirrel Macro: The Pod. Tuesday, 18th June 2024

The full Monday note can always be found at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

The Monday Note:

Show Note Visuals:

It turns out that we were right to wary of trying to call the top with Monday’s stock split in The Highlander™, my nickname for Nvidia which might finally be starting to catch on…). The stock is now up over 50% in 1 month, acting as a performance ‘black hole’ at the expense of nearly all other global equities.
CBOE 3-month implied correlations continue to set new all-time lows.
To illustrate the pain, the upper panel is $HYGH (the interest rate hedge version of $HYG that gives a pure exposure to US high yield credit spreads), the lower panel is the MOVE index of treasury volatility.
France 10-year yields minus Germany 10-year yields in the era of the EUR. Last week’s spread blow out was up there with the greatest hits.
Zooming into the daily chart of the spread with the dollar index (DXY) overlaid. Hardly a ‘risk off’ flight to USD cash! EURUSD itself closed the week at 1.07, not even re-testing its 1.062 low from mid-April.
The class system, Chinese civil service style.
A log chart of the Moutai share price is the best way to see the share price impact of the anti-corruption clampdown. The linear chart is inset.
Moutai (blue) vs CATL (yellow), BYD (turquoise), Tencent (orange) and the HSCEI Index (red).

Squirrel Out! Ganbei!

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Blind Squirrel Macro
Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod
Macro for Civilians. Sharing successes and failures in the 30-year hunt for acorns in the markets. Finance observations are hit and miss.