Show was recorded at 6pm EST on Sunday 10th May, 2026.
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Today’s Slide Deck
Pod Summary
Seasonality Focus
Post-COVID regime has made May–July consistently green; the new rule of thumb is “buy April, sell July” — seasonality is a guardrail, not a strategy
S&P up ~8.5% YTD, tracking the typical post-shock recovery pattern (2020/COVID, 2023/SVB, 2025/Liberation Day)
Goldman note: hedge fund gross exposure had been declining for weeks — last week was the first increase, described as a “stop-in” (forced covering, not conviction buying)
Options skew is at extremes: call skew near 100th percentile, put skew near zero on a 10-year lookback — the market is all-offense, no defense; fragile if the flow reverses
AI CapEx & Token Consumption (Minute 7)
Goldman projects 24x token consumption growth by decade-end - this is a dangerous linear extrapolation in our view
Massive token wastage is not priced in; efficiency gains will compress demand projections over time
GPUs are no longer the binding constraint — hence NVIDIA stock’s underperformance
xAI just rented its entire Colossus Memphis data center to Anthropic - xAI running out of cash and needing to stop the burn ahead of the SpaceX AI IPO
An xAI ‘neocloud’ valuation of 5–8x EBITDA seems fair - CoreWeave trading at 11x 2026 / 5.5x 2027 is the comparable
Musk has effectively become a landlord and ceded foundation model leadership
CapEx vs. Buybacks — Equity Supply Problem (Minute 10)
S&P 500 CapEx rising from $1.3T (2024) → $2.1T (2027); buybacks flat in dollar terms and far less potent relative to total market cap
LBO flow (shares removed from market) has slowed; major IPO supply pipeline (SpaceX/xAI etc.) could put ~$2T of net new paper into the market
Bearish equities? The IPO pipeline is your catalyst
Market Breadth (Minute 17)
Despite the headline rally feeling “bubblicious,” 50% of S&P stocks are in a downtrend technically
Friday’s session: XLK up 3.5% but breadth only 37%; 9 of 11 sectors had negative breadth
Post-GFC market concentration near historic highs — the rally is getting narrower and narrower
Money flowing into US and Korea CapEx beneficiaries — memory, substrates, IMP, chip packaging all surging YTD
Most AI “bottleneck” plays are already discovered and priced (e.g. ASE (packaging and test) in Taiwan already doubled YTD
Trade Idea: SMH Calendar Strangle (Minute 22)
SMH (semiconductor ETF) has hit a parabolic phase — won’t correct in time; either continues climbing or drops hard
Trade: Buy June OTM calls (~38 delta) + Buy September OTM puts simultaneously
Dynamically manage by rolling the June calls up as the market rallies, using collected premium to fully fund the September puts — ending up in a free put position for the back half of summer
Allows participation in the near-term bull case while owning downside protection for free
Consumer Short Book (Minute 27)
Wingstop and Shake Shack both missed last week (Shake Shack blamed weather!)
Squirrel short restaurant names since mid-summer — thesis: real estate, food costs, and labour all rising while middle-income consumer demand erodes (and wildly expensive stocks)
The economy is moving from a “K economy” to a “gamma economy” — income and market gains concentrating at the top, everything in the middle hollowing out
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