The Dangers of Extrapolation

The Blind Squirrel's Monday Morning Notes, October 16th, 2023.

So you are saying I can have a weekly injection and eat it all?

Summary

• The winning investors of this year have been the enthusiastic embracers of extrapolation (AI and obesity drugs). We take a closer look at the GLP-1 phenomenon.

• Have we got way too bullish on the winners and way too bearish on the losers? The ‘cure’ for obesity would appear to have confined several industries and sectors to the garbage bin of history.

• We do a deep dive on ‘Big Food’. Consumer staples are no longer a safe hiding place in troubled markets. They are expensive and under attack on multiple fronts.

• We are not convinced that (eventual) reduced Dorito consumption impacts our bullish corn thesis.

• This week’s Acorn review covers #Offshore VAL 0.00%↑ RIG 0.00%↑ #Energy #AgCommodities DBA 0.00%↑ WEAT 0.00%↑ CANE 0.00%↑ DASH 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ #Mercedes COIN 0.00%↑ Private Equity and #uranium

The audio companion to this week’s note will be uploaded to Substack on Tuesday to allow me to incorporate comments and feedback from this note. It will also be available as a podcast…