Blind Squirrel Macro

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The Blind Squirrel's Monday Notes. 3/6/23

www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

The Blind Squirrel's Monday Notes. 3/6/23

Bracing for the "Patagonia vest" recession.

Mar 6, 2023
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The Blind Squirrel's Monday Notes. 3/6/23

www.blindsquirrelmacro.com
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Crumbling Patagonia Vests

Summary

  • We expand on Prof G’s ‘Patagonia vest recession’ thesis, expanding it from the world of Facebook product managers to the ‘financialized’ world. We are in a 2 speed world - “Main Street” and real assets feel fine for now.

  • On the other hand, the “financialized” world of “Wall Street” is missing its low inflation, low interest rate environment. Are the bodies beginning to float to the surface?

  • Meanwhile, markets look very strong technically. Like a seasoned prize fighter, they have shaken off a barrage of bad news and now enter the strongest time of year for seasonals. The “hated rally” continues.

  • China: Did the NPC just pour cold water on the re-opening story?

  • Good week for the Acorns. Strong start for Mercedes. Interesting news flow in Ags and uranium.

  • Following the Investor Day ‘train wreck’, we have another stab at the ‘dark side’ on Goldman Sachs (albeit with a short leash given market strength).

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