The Blind Squirrel's Monday Notes. 2/20/23

That feeling when you realize that PIMCO's Personal Account dealing rules are stricter than the Fed's...

Summary

• Last week’s CPI and PPI reports point to a risk of accelerating inflation. For now, equity markets do not care.

• With the help of Jefferies strategist Dave Zervos and ‘Old Chestnut’ we contemplate how it is that the Fed has not broken anything yet in financial markets (or the real economy).

• What is actually going on in China and how does it impact the commodity trade? (with a side order of implications for post-Adani India)

• In Acorns, we are trimming our Prosus / Tencent position after a nice run and plan to close our leveraged bet on a pause / pivot by the Fed. We are keen to re-short semis but will stay disciplined.

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Markets

I look forward to the Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut podcast dropping every weekend. ‘Old Chestnut’ is Morris Sachs, a retired bond market legend (Greenwich Capital / Brevan Howard etc) who is kind enough to…