The Autumn Offensive
The 🐿️ is just back from a quick visit to Hong Kong last week. Notwithstanding the sticky late summer heat, the shop windows of Central were already displaying presentation boxes of mooncakes a full 6 weeks ahead of Mid-Autumn Festival in early October.
After almost 3 years of living in the Southern hemisphere, while writing for an audience of which over 90% reside north of the Equator, seasons continue to mess with my head. US Labor Day weekend marks the formal close of the summer just as days are finally starting to lengthen here in Melbourne.
In my old investment banking work, the week after Labor Day marked the beginning of the ‘Autumn Offensive’ - the push to price as many transactions as possible before the markets slowed down again post-Thanksgiving.
After a summer grind higher in equities and no repeat of last August’s volatility shock / carry unwind, I find myself wondering whether the coast is indeed truly clear for Autumn Offensive 2025. The 🐿️’s risk whiskers are twitching. Time for a major focus on downside management.
Instead of tackling a fresh theme this week, I want to go through a process of re-underwriting all of our live Acorn positions and consider some previous themes.