Long Grains, Part III

The 🐿️ is trying to catch a falling knife in the corn market

Summary

• We are adding some more exposure to our long grains book. This time corn.

• This is a tactical trade playing on the same weather-driven theme that took us into Long Grains I (via DBA 0.00%↑) and Long Grains II (via WEAT 0.00%↑) earlier in the year.

• The dry part of our weather thesis has played out and the ingredients are on the table for the heat part over the next few weeks. There is no mention of geopolitics anywhere in this note.

• Longer-term, the transition to El Nino is going to keep grains in a down-trend in the medium term. However, a spike trade over this summer is still potentially on the table.

• I reiterate once again that this is an out-of-consensus call and the 🐿️ is a rodent, not a meteorologist. Size appropriately!

Long Grains: Part III

All this work on grains this year has made me a regular on the NOAA drought reports website and turned me into one of the 336 subscribers to the Moving Iron Podcast on YouTube. It is one good way of keeping a close eye on my favourite weather guru, Shawn…