It'll Never Catch On
The Blind Squirrel's 'Monday' Morning Notes. Year 3; Week 50.
It’ll Never Catch On
Once upon a time, wheeled luggage was ‘for pilots and flight attendants only’. A decade of lugging over-stuffed suit carriers over one shoulder with a 10 kilo leather briefcase in the other hand (just to make my point!) has been a gift to physiotherapists in later life. The 🐿️ now fully embraces wheels on suitcases.
Do not follow the rodent for fashion advice. Put me in the “late then enthusiastic adopter” bucket. Note that I have been consistently rude about ‘wearables’ over time. Alas, I used to stubbornly clamp my Blackberry to my ear while others wrestled with untangling headphone cables.
Just Google “The ‘Inverse-Square Law’ versus The ‘Antenna Effect’ on radiation intensity”. The final truth on this matter is yet to emerge - but I am still managing to pen these missives - my fried brain cells status is yet to be confirmed.
As for those Cyborg-esque Bluetooth headphones - they were firmly for ‘nerds and estate agents only!’ And then in 2017 my brother gave me a pair of AirPods for my birthday. Game changer!
As mentioned before, I have given up on AaaS (AirPods-as-a-subscription). Lost earbuds are now replaced with whatever is on special offer (for $30 instead of $300) at Amazon. However, these days I leave home more frequently without a wallet or house keys than I do without a pair of buds in my ear.
I also confess to being part of the masses mocking Google Glass and Oculus Rift when they were launched 10 years ago. I was in good company.
“Google Glass is not a wearable. It’s a prophylactic ensuring you will not conceive a child as no one will get near you.” Scott Galloway
Scott doubled down 2 years ago when Apple launched its Vision Pro headsets.
This rodent found himself nodding vigorously in agreement (not a surgery disclosure).
Then about a year ago, I found myself watching the product launch for the Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses. All that an impressionable 12 year old 🐿️ wanted for Christmas in 1983 - after Tom Cruise ‘relaunched’ them in Risky Business - was a pair of Ray-Ban Wayfarer shades (they had been on a bit of a fashion ‘pause’ since the days of Jimmie Dean and Aubrey Hepburn).
Matthew Vaughan even made a mini movie using only a pair of the modern iteration of the specs.
Frankly, AI-powered smart glasses still strike me as just a little bit creepy.
Creepy or not, their pathway to mass adoption just became a lot clearer.
My friends at (the excellent) Baiguan News - who have been a ‘go to’ source for me on China cultural trends over the past couple of years - described AI/AR glasses as the “next breakout consumer product in China”. Data from their parent (BigOne Lab) points to an explosion in purchase activity in the past 6 months.
Amber Zhang’s article focuses on the impressive and affordable array of smart glasses products now available in China. Unsurprisingly, our friends at Xiaomi have an offering at half the price and with twice the battery life of the ‘Gen 3’ Meta Ray-Bans. There’s more:
“This September, Xiaomi AI Glasses received a firmware update adding the Alipay “look-and-pay” function. Users simply speak a command to the built-in voice assistant, look at a QR code, and the payment is confirmed via voice.” Amber Zhang.
Payment by smart glasses certainly reimagines the expression ‘an expensive look’! Another reminder that I need to make a point of fading myself every time I think something new will “never catch on”. I suspect that my ear buds will soon be spending more time in my desk drawer along with those house keys and the wallet.
Is this change of heart getting me impatient to add Xiaomi (1810.HK) back to my China consumption basket? Nope! And I won’t be buying META on the strength of this trend alone either. Consumer tech hardware is a brutal business where margins go to die.
I did, however, figure that it would make sense for me to get smarter about the supply chain for this new consumer trend - as I suspect that that is where the money will be made…