Summary
In the global liquidity and risk cascade, the Baldrick is Dogecoin. Liquidity (from the ECB ($300bn), BOJ ($250bn) and PBOC ($450bn)) is the magic potion to which risk markets are in thrall.
As clever as it may make us feel, fundamental analysis and postulating about the “right thing” (for finance ministers and central banks to do) has to take a back seat to watching central banks’ balance sheets like a hawk.
Last week’s equity action had a strong ‘window-dressing’ vibe to it. I would seem that every fund manager wants their clients to see that they were ‘smart enough’ to hold on to Nvidia (NVDA) during its best quarter in history. Time to fade?
It is not yet clear to us that the OPEC+ news it outright bullish for crude. This is a big cut and cuts are not always bullish. We are not yet adding to positions and would like to see the oil chart fully repair its technical damage.
Finally, we have not written a piece about the US dollar’s loss of reserve currency status. Plenty of …