🐿️ Ears: Cem Karsan on Volatility and Macro

The Jam Croissant 🥐 does macro (really well!) too

March 28th, 2023. (5 minute read).

Episode Link. Run time: 65 minutes

The 🐿️ is a huge fan of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen’s podcast, Top Traders Unplugged. I am a regular listener as it helps me to keep abreast of what the CTA / trend following community are up to.

Niels has teamed up with Kai Volatility’s Cem Karsan to put together a terrific series of macro-focused discussions. We are massive fans of Cem’s work. He is a great macro thinker in addition to his deep domain expertise around flows and dealer positioning in the S&P option complex.

🐿️ key takeaways below:

• Cem sees and overall bearish trend for equities. “Don’t fight the Fed…they are selling calls”. Countertrend rallies always possible but “we are not in the same cyclical world”. We have switched from monetary to fiscal dominance when it comes to policy setting and market forces. Buckle up for more inflation and “at some stage, the Fed is going to lose control of the long end of the curve”.

• We are at the start of a regime s…