Did I buy the GDX in a Safari Suit?
The Blind Squirrel's 'Monday' Morning Notes. Year 4; Week 6 of 2026.
By popular request, a podcast version of last Thursday’s interview with Gavekal CEO, Louis Gave is also added at the end of the “voiceover” feed (for paid subscribers) of this week’s note. Just stick around after the first “Squirrel Out”! The conversation is already available on YouTube if you prefer to watch.
In the very early days of the Trump administration, a Toto-inspired 🐿️ had a hunch that a post-election acceleration of deglobalization was creating a really interesting entry point for African equities.
The summary thesis back then was as follows:
Infrastructure & Resource Wealth: Africa holds roughly 30% of the world’s mineral reserves and is reaping the benefits of significant Chinese “Belt and Road” investment in hard infrastructure - railways, energy grids, and airports.
Demographic “Golden Age”: Africa is hitting a demographic sweet spot where the workforce is maturing into its most productive years, creating a massive dividend just as the rest of the global population begins to age.
Improving Political Stability: Key regions are showing signs of settling, with South Africa’s new Government of National Unity and major reform programs in Nigeria and Morocco that could be signaling a shift away from the usual volatility.
“Near Shoring” Beneficiaries: North African nations are emerging as critical industrial hubs (e.g., Morocco for European autos) and also attracting strategic capital from Gulf states seeking political stability within their ‘bridge to Europe’ (the Suez Canal).
We added a position in AFK 0.00%↑, the Africa ETF from VanEck, with a commitment to do more work on single stock opportunities in the region.
Last summer, we made good on that promise, adding a position in pan-African ecommerce play, Jumia Technologies JMIA 0.00%↑.
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More on Jumia later, but I wanted to start with a quote from the company’s CEO on last week’s earning call:
“Without sarcasm, I think Africa is starting to look like a very stable place related to the rest of the world. But more seriously, what we've seen over the past 1.5 years across the continent is that the macro is stabilizing.” - Francis Dufay, CEO - Jumia Technologies.
If I am honest, the performance of African stocks in the past 15 months was sufficient to qualify as the ‘surprise of the year’ on Kevin Muir’s Christmas edition of the Market Huddle.
With Kev, I argued that the stocks remained cheap even after a strong year of outperformance and that my 2026 ‘surprise’ would be that these shares would put in another strong year.
