<![CDATA[Blind Squirrel Macro: Benny & The Squirrel]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/s/benny-and-the-squirrelhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eQxr!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37bfaa8-247f-49a6-8128-a6e3232610fb_1280x1280.pngBlind Squirrel Macro: Benny & The Squirrelhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/s/benny-and-the-squirrelSubstackMon, 11 May 2026 13:58:43 GMT<![CDATA[We Made it to 50!]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/we-made-it-to-50https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/we-made-it-to-50Sun, 10 May 2026 23:05:18 GMT

Show was recorded at 6pm EST on Sunday 10th May, 2026.

As explained last week, Blind Squirrel Macro paid subscriptions are paused until early June. I am unable to accept new paid subscribers until then but please get in touch if you recently subscribed to the letter and are interested in a trial / review of the archive.

I am not able to publish paywalled commentary on a billing pause - so for the next 3 weeks, enjoy the show notes for free!

Today’s Slide Deck

Today's Slides
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Pod Summary

Seasonality Focus

  • Post-COVID regime has made May–July consistently green; the new rule of thumb is “buy April, sell July” — seasonality is a guardrail, not a strategy

  • S&P up ~8.5% YTD, tracking the typical post-shock recovery pattern (2020/COVID, 2023/SVB, 2025/Liberation Day)

  • Goldman note: hedge fund gross exposure had been declining for weeks — last week was the first increase, described as a “stop-in” (forced covering, not conviction buying)

  • Options skew is at extremes: call skew near 100th percentile, put skew near zero on a 10-year lookback — the market is all-offense, no defense; fragile if the flow reverses

AI CapEx & Token Consumption (Minute 7)

  • Goldman projects 24x token consumption growth by decade-end - this is a dangerous linear extrapolation in our view

  • Massive token wastage is not priced in; efficiency gains will compress demand projections over time

  • GPUs are no longer the binding constraint — hence NVIDIA stock’s underperformance

  • xAI just rented its entire Colossus Memphis data center to Anthropic - xAI running out of cash and needing to stop the burn ahead of the SpaceX AI IPO

  • An xAI ‘neocloud’ valuation of 5–8x EBITDA seems fair - CoreWeave trading at 11x 2026 / 5.5x 2027 is the comparable

  • Musk has effectively become a landlord and ceded foundation model leadership

CapEx vs. Buybacks — Equity Supply Problem (Minute 10)

  • S&P 500 CapEx rising from $1.3T (2024) → $2.1T (2027); buybacks flat in dollar terms and far less potent relative to total market cap

  • LBO flow (shares removed from market) has slowed; major IPO supply pipeline (SpaceX/xAI etc.) could put ~$2T of net new paper into the market

  • Bearish equities? The IPO pipeline is your catalyst

Market Breadth (Minute 17)

  • Despite the headline rally feeling “bubblicious,” 50% of S&P stocks are in a downtrend technically

  • Friday’s session: XLK up 3.5% but breadth only 37%; 9 of 11 sectors had negative breadth

  • Post-GFC market concentration near historic highs — the rally is getting narrower and narrower

  • Money flowing into US and Korea CapEx beneficiaries — memory, substrates, IMP, chip packaging all surging YTD

  • Most AI “bottleneck” plays are already discovered and priced (e.g. ASE (packaging and test) in Taiwan already doubled YTD

Trade Idea: SMH Calendar Strangle (Minute 22)

  • SMH (semiconductor ETF) has hit a parabolic phase — won’t correct in time; either continues climbing or drops hard

  • Trade: Buy June OTM calls (~38 delta) + Buy September OTM puts simultaneously

  • Dynamically manage by rolling the June calls up as the market rallies, using collected premium to fully fund the September puts — ending up in a free put position for the back half of summer

  • Allows participation in the near-term bull case while owning downside protection for free

Consumer Short Book (Minute 27)

  • Wingstop and Shake Shack both missed last week (Shake Shack blamed weather!)

  • Squirrel short restaurant names since mid-summer — thesis: real estate, food costs, and labour all rising while middle-income consumer demand erodes (and wildly expensive stocks)

  • The economy is moving from a “K economy” to a “gamma economy” — income and market gains concentrating at the top, everything in the middle hollowing out

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

]]><![CDATA[FX Vol - The Dog That Didn't Bark]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/fx-vol-the-dog-that-didnt-barkhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/fx-vol-the-dog-that-didnt-barkThu, 07 May 2026 23:48:02 GMT

In Episode 49, Benny & The Squirrel welcome to the show. Brent is President of Spectra Markets and author of AM/FX and the . Brent’s 3rd book, Alpha Trader 2: Outside the Box will be available on May 22nd. The first 2 were bangers - this one is more targeted towards professional traders.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 7th May.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck (it’s a fantastic one this week) - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Follow The Money]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/follow-the-moneyhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/follow-the-moneyMon, 04 May 2026 00:29:11 GMT

Show was recorded at 7.20pm EST on Sunday 3rd May, 2026. Make sure you join us on Thursday. We have coming on to chat about FX and his new book - Alpha Trader 2.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, Benny & The Squirrel’s Sovereign Resilience Index, the audio-only version and the rest of the🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[The Year of The Small Caps?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-year-of-the-small-capshttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-year-of-the-small-capsFri, 01 May 2026 01:47:49 GMT

In Episode 47, Benny & The Squirrel welcome Adam Peck to the show. Adam is CIO at Riverwater Partners in Milwaukee and he has managed small cap funds since 2006…and survived!! Connect with Adam on LinkedIn - he does not do the bird app!

The show was recorded at 8pm EST on Thursday 30th April.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck (it’s a fantastic one this week) - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Hidden Risk]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hidden-riskhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hidden-riskSun, 26 Apr 2026 23:42:58 GMT

Show was recorded at 6.20pm EST on Sunday 26th April, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, Benny & The Squirrel’s Sovereign Resilience Index, the audio-only version and the rest of the🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[US Defense Stocks on Defense]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/us-defense-stocks-on-defensehttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/us-defense-stocks-on-defenseThu, 23 Apr 2026 23:45:24 GMT

Show was recorded at 6.45pm EST on Thursday 23rd April, 2026. Larry McDonald was unwell and unable to join but we pressed on anyway as there is so much to talk about!

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[The Earnings Delusion]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-earnings-delusionhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-earnings-delusionMon, 20 Apr 2026 00:31:49 GMT

Show was recorded at 7.15pm EST on Easter Sunday 19th April, 2026.

This coming Thursday we will be joined by Larry McDonald of “Bear Traps Report” fame.

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]]><![CDATA[Is This Rally a Head Fake?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/is-this-rally-a-head-fakehttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/is-this-rally-a-head-fakeThu, 16 Apr 2026 21:56:41 GMT

In Episode 41, Benny & The Squirrel welcome to the show. Craig is Senior Macro Strategist at Ninja Trader, the largest retail futures broker in the US. He also writes the excellent macro note, .

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 16th April.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck (it’s a fantastic one this week) - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Hormuz Double Lock]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hormuz-double-lockhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hormuz-double-lockMon, 13 Apr 2026 00:30:04 GMT

Show was recorded at 7.30pm EST on Sunday 12th April, 2026. Sorry for the late one - Benny could not tear himself away from his Masters watch party! Go Rory!

Become a paid subscriber to get Benny’s SPX back-test data, full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[The Final Leg of the Credit Cycle?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-final-leg-of-the-credit-cyclehttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the-final-leg-of-the-credit-cycleThu, 09 Apr 2026 23:56:34 GMT

In Episode 41, Benny & The Squirrel welcome back Charlie Peabody to the show. Charlie is a partner and the founder of financials specialist Portales Partners. The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 9th April.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck (it’s a fantastic one this week) - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[SpaceX IPO Will Break The Market]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/spacex-ipo-will-break-the-markethttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/spacex-ipo-will-break-the-marketMon, 06 Apr 2026 00:01:03 GMT

Show was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Easter Sunday 5th April, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[How the Short Selling Sausage is Made]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/how-the-short-selling-sausage-ishttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/how-the-short-selling-sausage-isThu, 02 Apr 2026 20:11:32 GMT

In Episode 39, Benny & The Squirrel welcome , CIO of Brumby Capital and author of the Substack (one of our favorites). The show was recorded at 3pm EST on Wednesday 1st April.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[End of the Pain for Bond Bulls?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/end-of-the-pain-for-bond-bullshttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/end-of-the-pain-for-bond-bullsSun, 29 Mar 2026 23:48:33 GMT

Show was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Sunday 29th March.

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]]><![CDATA[Hanging with Kuppy]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hanging-with-kuppyhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/hanging-with-kuppyThu, 26 Mar 2026 21:03:54 GMT

In Episode 37, Benny & The Squirrel welcome Harris ‘’ Kupperman, CIO of Praetorian Capital. The show was recorded at 2pm EST on Thursday 26th March.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Adult Swim!]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/adult-swimhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/adult-swimMon, 23 Mar 2026 00:05:55 GMT

Show was live streamed at 6.30pm EST on Sunday 22nd March.

Make sure you join us again on Thursday. My pal Harris Kupperman (aka ) will be joining us! Kuppy never disappoints!

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[Food Crisis Imminent?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/food-crisis-imminenthttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/food-crisis-imminentFri, 20 Mar 2026 00:32:53 GMT

In Episode 35, Benny & "Farmer Squirrel" welcome Hoyt of ArchAIQ.

Welcome to the wild world of agricultural commodities, where weather, geopolitics and farmer survival collide! Nico is using AI and hard data to replace the guesswork and “FERP”-ing that currently plagues the ag trading world.

Nico brings decades of global trading experience, from clerking in the CME pits to managing capital for family offices and directing institutional grain operations for one of the ABCDs. An American now based in Uruguay, Nico founded ArchaiQ, an end-to-end sovereign tech stack specifically for Ag traders. He is also about to launch PAiQ, a JV with PiQ, a new Ag news and analytics platform. Make sure you follow him on Substack () / his website / Twitter.

Nico was my collaborator on last weekend’s note and is now my “go to” sherpa in the Ag space.

Here is a free link to the 🐿️’s piece from last year on broad-based commodity ETFs - LINK.

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Explosive Setup in Ags!]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/explosive-setup-in-agshttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/explosive-setup-in-agsSun, 15 Mar 2026 22:31:05 GMT

Show was recorded at 5.30pm EST on Sunday 15th March.

Make sure you join us again on Thursday. Nico Hoyt - my collaborator on Revenge of the Malthusians - will be joining us to round out Ag week!

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[Failure At The Fed!]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/failure-at-the-fedhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/failure-at-the-fedThu, 12 Mar 2026 22:25:08 GMT

In Episode 33 Benny & I are joined by Danielle DiMartino Booth to discuss the Federal Reserve, private credit, and Non-Depository Financial Institutions (NDFIs). No punches were pulled! - brb, I’m off to buy some more SOFR calls!

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck (containing some great charts from Danielle not covered in the show) - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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]]><![CDATA[Iran's Strategic End Game]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/irans-strategic-end-gamehttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/irans-strategic-end-gameSun, 08 Mar 2026 23:14:15 GMT

Show was recorded at 6pm EST on Sunday 8th March.

In Episode 32 of “Benny & The Squirrel,” discuss the severe market implications of spiking energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions, warning that such crude oil shocks historically lead to recessions.

We highlight deep complacency in equity markets and caution against a potential unwinding of the dispersion trade, which could trigger a massive spike in index volatility.

We advise defensive positioning, suggesting the SJB ETF as a cash proxy to hedge against high-yield credit blowouts and urge listeners to hold cash and avoid complex options trading in the current market.

Make sure you join us again on Thursday. Danielle DiMartino Booth is going to join for a chat about the impact of the private credit market implosion on commercial banks.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the slide deck, audio-only version and the rest of the 🐿️’s work!

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]]><![CDATA[Will Energy Kill The Japanese Bull Market?]]>https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/will-energy-kill-the-japanese-bullhttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/will-energy-kill-the-japanese-bullFri, 06 Mar 2026 01:49:05 GMT

Benny and I welcome to the pod. Mateen is a seasoned investment professional based in Australia, focusing on Japan and wider Asian markets. Make sure that you sign up for Mateen’s Discuss The Tape letter and his new publication.

Watch on YouTube

Become a paid subscriber to get the audio edition, full show summary and the slide deck - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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