Blind Squirrel Macro: Benny & The Squirrel

The Ownership Dividend

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:33:05 GMT

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Fully revamped and upgraded show notes (plus lots of bonus content and material) are now being sent out by Benny & The Squirrel directly. These notes will usually come out a few hours after the show is live on YouTube.

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Recorded at 5.30pm EST on Thursday 5th November.

For Episode 101 of ⁨the show, we were joined by , head of the Income and Value group at Federated Hermes. Dan explains why cash in hand beats contingent gains, why total return is a broken measurement, how the S&P 500 stopped measuring the market and started driving it, and what a historian and former Sovietologist sees in the long decline of Russia.

If you act on anything provided in this newsletter, you agree to the terms in this disclaimer. Everything in this newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and NOT investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to sell or to buy any security. The author is not responsible for any financial loss you may incur by acting on any information provided in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, talk to a financial advisor.

Make or Break Markets into Mid Terms

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 01 Nov 2026 22:35:14 GMT

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Episode 100! Benny & The Squirrel hit the century mark!! Markets into the midterms, the Anthropic IPO, why Google and Amazon got hammered while Oracle ripped, and the one trade that has held the book together since June.

AI Outcomes Have FAT Tails

The Blind Squirrel — Sat, 31 Oct 2026 00:11:22 GMT

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In Episode 99, Benny & The Squirrel are joined by Brandon Carl. Is AI headed for its shale boom moment? We recorded after an AI-centric shocker of a day in markets, we sit down with a rare operator with a decade on Wall Street in fixed income derivatives followed by a decade building in AI. He is now the founder of Soundcast, and he argues the loudest voices on both sides of the AI trade are wrong.

Assessing the AI Carnage

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 25 Oct 2026 22:56:04 GMT

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Episode 98 and another unmissable Sunday Show! The AI trade is getting flushed. But is this the big one, or just another crowded-position unwind? We unpack the widening cracks in AI financing, why booming compute demand does not automatically mean booming revenue, and whether the S&P equal weight’s comeback signals a genuine market rotation.

Lost in The Bermuda Triangle

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 00:36:26 GMT

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In Episode 97, Benny & The Squirrel are joined by , author of . Nick has spent fifteen months buried in 10,000 page statutory insurance filings, and what he found should worry anyone with an annuity, a life policy, or exposure to credit markets.

AI Panic?

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 23:12:58 GMT

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For Episode 96 the show brings 'Black Monday' (we think not!) chatter, neocloud CDS blow outs, and Brent 2027 going vertical. We break down the first real pain at index level this year, why the AI unwind is a positioning flush and not the big one, the sovereign backstop question hanging over Anthropic / OpenAI and the data center complex, and where the smart money is actually hiding. All that, plus the Squirrel's latest work on the 'Twenty for Twenty' portfolio (Global Industrials) and why BYD might be the world's most impressive industrial company but a less impressive stock.

Don’t Buy Rates Yet!

The Blind Squirrel — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 22:30:31 GMT

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In Episode 95, our pal Tom Roderick (Trium Capital) is back with us on CPI day as a hotter print cracks a tape that already felt fragile. Recorded at Noon EST on Wednesday 14th October.

We get into why the short end rates trade has been a slog, why Tom prefers steepeners to outright receivers, and how France, bank carry pain and hyperscaler supply are all feeding the same problem: a rising cost of capital.

From there it is CoreWeave spreads; negative hyperscaler free cash flow; the China AI and oil collar; South African 9.5% bonds; Brazil ahead of the second round; A-shares versus Hong Kong tech; Europe drifting right - a potential Le Pen versus Mélenchon runoff; and why gold keeps struggling when real rates rise.

The Best of Times, The Worst of Times

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:51:41 GMT

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In Episode 94: The free cash flow countdown on AI capex has hit zero, and the bond market is starting to say no. Benny joins from Milwaukee ahead of Brewers vs Dodgers NLCS Game 1, the Squirrel is back in Oxfordshire after a 15-hour drive through France, and the boys go around the houses: the pulled Firmus float on the ASX, hyperscaler CDS at junk levels, why 5% on the long end is anything but “agnostic”, two rate-sensitive stocks worth your attention, Brazil's pension fund powder keg, and why France is the G7 debt story into April.

Q3 Banks: Good Numbers, Bad Stocks

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 17:38:37 GMT

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In Episode 93 of ⁨the show, our mate Charlie Peabody of Portales Partners returns for our quarterly bank earnings special. Banks peaked in August/September, and Charlie thinks the balance sheet, not the P&L, is about to drive this market lower. We cover credit cards, BNPL, Goldman's prime broking boom, the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Treasury basis trade, SDR monetization, stablecoins versus deposit franchises, and what Q3 earnings will actually show.

Will the Real Stock Market Stand Up?

The Blind Squirrel — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 02:56:34 GMT

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Episode 92 was recorded at 2pm EST on Sunday 4th October, 2026

Modern AI Merlins

The Blind Squirrel — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 22:50:09 GMT

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Episode 91 was recorded at 5.30 EST on Wednesday 30th September, 2026. We were joined by . Izzy is the founder of the Blind Spot, a finance and ideas publication. Best known as the former editor of FT Alphaville at the Financial Times, she is now a contributor at The Daily Telegraph and a widely read commentator on markets, monetary policy and the economics of AI.

Welcome to FunkyTown!

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 18:34:34 GMT

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Episode 90 was recorded at 2pm EST on Sunday 27th September, 2026

Running The Gauntlet!

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 20 Sep 2026 22:09:58 GMT

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Episode 88 was recorded at 6.30 EST on Sunday 20th September, 2026

Oil to $240!

The Blind Squirrel — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 22:01:08 GMT

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Episode 87 was recorded at 4.30 EST on Thursday 17th September, 2026. Rob Connors of joins Benny and the Squirrel to explain why he doesn't count barrels, why the marginal cost of production is the only number that matters in oil, and why he thinks crude is heading to $240 before this cycle is done!

We get into the well productivity slowdown that signals rising development costs, the "China collar" and the renminbi signal, why big tech's trillion-dollar capex binge is a replay of big oil in 2013, the refining secondary-unit squeeze, and where we are in the energy equity cycle (inning four or five, with parabolic euphoria still ahead).

The Bond Bull is Back!

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 23:37:51 GMT

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Episode 86 was recorded at 6.30 EST on Sunday 13th September, 2026 - and it’s another UNMISSABLE Sunday Show!

Crackers About Caracas!

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:47 GMT

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Episode 85 was recorded at 6.30 EST on Thursday 10th September, 2026. We were joined by Herve van Caloen, Founder and CIO of Mercator Investment Management. Starting his career as an analyst at Scudder, Stevens and Clark in 1985, when global investing was still in its infancy.

He later launched The PaineWebber Europe Growth Fund, the first mutual fund specializing in both Western Europe and in the former communist countries of central Europe. In the mid 1990s, Mr. van Caloen led the international investment effort at Provident Capital Management and later served as First Vice President of Schroders in New York.

Follow Herve on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Xmas Tree of Death

The Blind Squirrel — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:11:01 GMT

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Fully revamped and upgraded show notes (plus lots of bonus content and material) are now being sent out by Benny & The Squirrel directly. These notes will come out tomorrow. Please si…

You Don’t Own Enough Japan!

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 01:08:55 GMT

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Fully revamped and upgraded show notes (plus lots of bonus content and material) are now being sent out by Benny & The Squirrel directly. These notes will usually come out a few hours…

Jackson Hole Hangover

The Blind Squirrel — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:45:41 GMT

Episode 82 was recorded at 6.40pm EST on Sunday 30th August, 2026.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

Benny & The Squirrel (@bennyandthesquirrel) | TikTok

https://www.instagram.com/benny_and_the_squirrel/

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Around the World with Chase Taylor

The Blind Squirrel — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:50:54 GMT

Episode 81 was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 27th August, 2026. We were delighted to be joined by my pal Chase Taylor. Chase is is a busy guy. He is Founder and ‘Chief Cone’ at Pinecone Macro as well as Head of Research at Bulwark Capital Management.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

Benny & The Squirrel (@bennyandthesquirrel) | TikTok

https://www.instagram.com/benny_and_the_squirrel/

Become a paid subscriber to get the show notes including a summary, today’s slides and the audio edition - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!