This week’s Benny & The Squirrel Sunday Show covered ‘The Death Shot’. Today’s ‘Start the Week’ note focuses on the implications of such a move for our portfolios.

In the weekend flagship note, the 🐿️ took a look at the opportunity in Turkish equities. Check it out via the link below 👇:

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So far, the month of July has been kind to the BUSHY™ portfolio - last week saw solid outperformance versus the ‘target date’ benchmark and the S&P.

Performance so far in July has been carried by the physical commodity sleeve (mainly oil - let’s see what the latest ‘Sunday night dump’ does), energy equities and by the managed futures / trend-following allocation.

Managing The Death Shot

Before we go to the portfolio reviews, we have a Fed meeting this week and I want to review our exposure to ‘surprise’ hike.

On fixed income, outside of the allocation to EM local currency bonds, BUSHY™’s only exposure to sovereign rates comes via the trend allocation.

Aside from WTMF with a small long Treasury position, the other 5 funds that trade fixed income markets (AHLT, KMLM, DBMF, TFPN and MFTFX) have significant short positions across the curve. This does not come as a huge surprise given the path of yields over the past 3 months.

STIR pricing is currently indicating a 34% chance of a 25bps hike at this week’s FOMC meeting. My base case is still ‘no move’. But reputational incentives for Warsh mean we can’t dismiss the risk of a surprise hike entirely.

My starting point here is that financial conditions have already tightened significantly since mid June - driven primarily by long rates and FX.

More recently softer equities and widening hyperscaler credit spreads have helped to tighten the market further. The sheer volume of paper hitting the credit market from the AI spenders is almost operating like a form of quantitative tightening.

I am on the record with a view that Kevin Warsh is in a tough spot. Like every new Fed Chair, he is keen to burnish his inflation-busting credentials. But with the government and so much of the economy financed at the front of the curve I am not sure how much scope he has to hike without breaking things.

But the table below (h/t ) still bothers me. With an annual salary of $253,100, the husband of the Estée Lauder heiress is hardly doing the job for the money. It is all about reputation for these guys - my guess is that he does not want to join Arthur Burns with a green box against his name.

If he thinks he has a hike in him, arguably he gets more reputation value for being ‘brave and early’ - although I am not convinced that he would get much of a reward from the bond vigilantes in terms of reduced term premium.

Or, in hiking would Warsh be administering what my podcasting partner Benny likes to call the ‘Death Shot’ - i.e., the hike that ends the business cycle?

The Central Bank ‘Death Shot’ Hall of Fame

So what does a ‘Death Shot’ look like in practice? A few central bankers have already written themselves into the Hall of Fame:

🎯#5 - Japan (1989-1990): The BOJ began its aggressive rate hiking cycle in May 1989 under Satoshi Sumita. The final ‘death shot’ came from his successor Yasushi Mieno who continued to hike aggressively into August 1990, finishing the job and fully puncturing the Japanese asset bubble.

🎯#4 - US (2006): Greenspan may have started the 2004–2006 hiking cycle, but Ben Bernanke took over in February 2006 administered the ‘death shot with the rate increase to 5.25% in June 2006 as the housing market was already beginning to unravel.

🎯#3 - Australia (2008): Glenn Stevens presided over the RBA that hiked the cash rate to 7.25% in March 2008 just as global liquidity was freezing up ahead of the GFC.

🎯#2 & #1 - ECB (2008 & 2011): Jean-Claude Trichet is the all-timer with the top 2 slots on the leaderboard! In July 2008, he infamously raised rates into a slowing economy and rising commodity prices just weeks before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In 2011, Trichet double-dipped on policy errors, hiking rates twice in 2011 as the European sovereign debt crisis was intensifying.

In every case, the kill shot came after policy had already done most of the tightening. The last hike was the one that tipped risk asset markets over the edge.

How would a Death Shot hit my book?

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Back in the Straddle - the 2026 Edition

Another strong week for BUSHY™ - the energy headwind from June has become, for now, a solid tailwind. But before get to the portfolio reviews, I wanted to take you through why (and how) the 🐿️ decided to strap back on some volatility exposure last week.

As of last Tuesday we are back in the straddle. Newer subscribers should read the old notes on the strategy - start with the one linked below.

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship was a deep dive into our energy positioning. Check it out via the link below 👇:

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Refining the ‘Straya Ruggedization Basket

Those of you that made it to the end of the weekend note will know that the 🐿️ is 3 weeks away from becoming an Australian citizen. In late March I wrote about the need for my new home to reinvest in sovereign resilience.

I put together a basket of stocks - yet to be implemented - that I felt stood to benefit from political focus on the topic. There have been promising developments on the political front but we need to make some refinements.

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In this week’s ‘Start the Week’ note we start with ‘Part 2’ of the 🐿️’s annual ‘Stock Take’ - covering China and other EM equity exposure - ahead of the usual portfolio reviews. An important BUSHY™-related email will be hitting inboxes in about an hour.

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship note contains Part 1 of the ‘Stock Take’. Check it out via the link below 👇:

Stock Take Pt 2 - EM Edition

2026 has been an unusual year for Emerging Markets as the main benchmark - driven by the chip giants of Seoul and Taipei - got swept into the AI capex trade.

China

China has been having its own AI party. The chip stack on the domestic SSE STAR Market has been going a valiant job trying to keep pace with the memory giants in Korea and also outrunning the broader EM index.

Offshore however, China’s traditional tech giants have acted as dead weight for the MSCI China.

We took action in early March to part company with EM tech laggards (‘Doc, my EM Tech is Sick’). By then, we in ‘sell only’ mode when it came to risk. As such when it came time to rethink the 🐿️’s Concentrated China portfolio at the beginning of May, we were in ‘window shopping mode’ only.

We exited 7 (mainly consumer) names and trimmed the names that we were sticking with (but at a lower weight). The ‘top-ups’ and the new adds were left in the post-Hormuz ‘pending trades’ bucket. Now what?

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Quick reminder that the cost of annual subscriptions will be rising from $360 to $450 TOMORROW! Monthly subscriptions will remain at $45. As ever, all existing subscribers are grandfathered at their original rates.

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship note drilled down on the recent strength of the USD. Check it out via the link below 👇:

ATS is not a K-pop Band

Before we get to the portfolio review, I owe you some background to the newest edition to BUSHY™’s ETF line up - - Cambria’s Global Value ETF. I have been aware of GVAL for quite some time but my traditional weapon of choice for EM value equity beta has been the iShares EM High Dividend ETF.

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Quick reminder that the cost of annual subscriptions will be rising from $360 to $450 at the end of this month. Monthly subscriptions will remain at $45. As ever, all existing subscribers are grandfathered at their original rates.

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship note covered the opportunity created by ‘Reverse De-Equitization’ in US equity markets. Check it out via the link below 👇:

Now What?

The 🐿️ has had one paw tied behind his back on the risk front since the start of a war that the markets - rightly or wrongly - appear to have moved on from. Or have they? The mood music from Switzerland over the weekend suggests that we just going to have to live with a high degree of Hormuz ambiguity for some time to come.

Does that make it the right time to add back risk to our portfolios? Frankly, does not feel great. We are far from having clarity, but it feels like time to (at least partially) get back on the horse. Some significant changes…

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship revisited my basket of global financial exchanges. Check it out via the link below 👇:

The Brent Bleed

Before we get to the portfolio reviews, an urgent word on oil…

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This week’s ‘Start the Week’ was sent via email to existing paid subscribers at 4.50am EST on Sunday 7th June if you want to search your inbox. It will be put back in the online archive here once subscription billing is un-paused next week.

Start the Week note will be brief again this week. A few changes to the portfolios this week that we need to go through. I will finally make it home to Melbourne mid-week when normal publishing cadence will recommence (and billing will be un-paused).

Supply!

Last weekend’s note covered the 🐿️’s JOMO (Joy Of Missing Out) philosophy as regards the prevailing feeding frenzy in the memory semis market. Last week’s rout of the leaders frankly came much sooner than I had been expecting.

In last week’s Sunday Show, Benny & I discussed the shift in the sources of funding that the hyper-scalers were employing to finance AI data center (‘AIDC’) capex.

Quick plug: the interview that we recorded with Ameesh Agarwal last week was a fascinating deep dive on on AIDC credit markets. Do at least scan the show notes if you do not have the hour to spare. We have more work to do on this space - there will certainly be trade ideas.

What initially was being covered by internal free cash flow from the tech giants soon migrated into private then public debt capital markets. I am still struggling to understand the corporate finance logic behind financing a 10-year useful life asset with a 30-year JPY/GBP bond issue.

The 🐿️’s worst ever personal macro call was to leave an ECM job in Asia in July 2003 - on the eve of a decade long Chinese IPO mega boom. On the flight back from Hong Kong to my new job in London that summer, I read Rob Buckland’s note (below) with a degree of trepidation. What looked to be great outlook for equity prices (and it was!) and for M&A bankers was decidedly a ‘no bueno’ for IPO bankers!

Since the start of the year, I have been increasingly concerned that the tailwinds that have supported US equities in the past 15 years - namely share buybacks, LBOs and 401k flows - could be about to move into reverse just as the market faces a wall of AI-related equity supply.

Back to the Sunday Show. We were discussing this very topic. I commented that “…if we start getting MAG7 common stock supply on top of these IPOs, I’d be really worried”. Less than 24 hours later, the Alphabet $80bn capital raise news hit the tape. The physics of the SpaceX IPO layout just got considerably harder.

The 🐿️ had been booked by CNBC in Hong Kong to chat about the SpaceX IPO the following morning. But for me, the Google news was probably the bigger deal to discuss (link to the relevant clip via image below).

Google’s raise certainly robs liquidity from the SpaceX deal in the near term. More importantly, it has already potentially triggered its first ‘copy cat’ deal from Zuckerberg.

Who next? Amazon? Microsoft? The age of reverse de-equitization appears to be upon us! The hyper-scalers and foundation model companies could be issuers of primary equity for the foresee-able future.

In my view, the S&P index committee has 100% made the correct call to require SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI to satisfy the profitability and seasoning standards before inclusion in the benchmark.

I had assumed that they would cave alongside the Nasdaq 100 and FTSE Russell compilers. Am glad that they did not.

For me, we have the makings of a really interesting long equal-weight S&P versus short market-cap weighted S&P (or or ) trade that could work for the next couple of years as the largest stocks in the index become net suppliers of paper to the market.

This may now need some further refinement following the S&P announcement. More on this to follow. The chart below from WisdomTree has been doing the rounds lately on social media. Scary right?

Because the 🐿️ is a nerd, he decided to put together the same analysis of the S&P500 equal-weight / :

With less than 10% exposure to paper valued at > 10x Price to Sales, I kind of know where I want to rent my beta over the next few quarters -especially if it is those most expensive and largest components of the US benchmark are are planning on being net suppliers of equity paper to the market.

BUSHY™ and Acorn Review

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No changes to discuss beyond closing the call leg of the strangle (retaining the September puts). BUSHY™’s assault on the front end of the Brent curve is still pending - but we are getting close.

In case you missed it, the 🐿️ made a guest appearance on The Compound with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick last Wednesday. They asked me on to question me about my work on the SpaceX last week.

Hynix JOMO

The 🐿️ is suffering from a grave bout of amnesia - he has NO MEMORY (in his portfolio)! The only recent exposure I have had to the investor feeding frenzy in DRAM and HBM semiconductors in the past 2 months has been the call leg of the strangle in BUSHY™’s hedge book - and we took that off last week!

As I have mentioned many times before, I have PTSD-related reasons for not participating in this cycle’s DRAM risk ‘orgy’ in Korea (and elsewhere). Significant personal history with multiple recapitalizations of Hynix in the early 2000s has left me with scar tissue and a core mantra that there is no such thing as a value trade in the highly cyclical semiconductor sector.

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Blind Squirrel Macro paid subscriptions are paused until early June. I am unable to accept new paid subscribers until then. While I am on the road, I am continuing to publish the ‘Start the Week’ note on Sundays. Please get in touch if you recently subscribed to the letter and are interested in a trial / review of the archive.

This week’s ‘Start the Week’ was sent via email at 4.30am EST on Monday 25th May if you want to search your inbox. It will be put back in the online archive here once subscription billing is un-paused in June.

If you had not had a chance to look at the new SpaceX piece I put out on Sunday - I think this IPO is the biggest risk factor facing US equity markets this quarter. You need to understand the potential flow of funds impact even if you have no interest in investing in Elon’s rockets.

At the moment, BUSHY™ is underweight risk assets out of choice. The only risk that the beta portfolio has added since the start of the war has been in agricultural commodities and energy equities.

As such, the portfolio is always destined to underperform in market conditions like we saw last week - with energy producers being the weakest US equity sector.

A Quick Note on Crude

I am writing this on Monday afternoon Asia time (c.4am EST). Sunday night futures appear to be paying tepid lip service to the ‘Iran deal proximity’ being sold over the Memorial Day weekend. Equities are well bid and $4-5 per barrel has been shaved off front month Brent and WTI crude prices (about half of what was suggested by Hyperliquid markets over the weekend).

The current headlines out of Washington and the Middle East are not exactly screaming FINAL RESOULUTION! at me but I am prepared to at least concede that we are closer to the end of the war than the beginning.

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Blind Squirrel Macro paid subscriptions are paused until early June. I am unable to accept new paid subscribers until then. While I am on the road, I am continuing to publish the ‘Start the Week’ not…

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As previewed last week, the🐿️ has been restructuring his China equity concentrated long-only portfolio. 17 stocks, 55% in top 5 names. Check it out via the link below 👇:

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Oh Canada!

The M&A bankers of Toronto’s Bay Street are creating a bunch of extra work for the 🐿️! Delighted for you fellas, but please cut it out! I keep on needing to find portfolio replacements.

Last week saw a $16.4 billion bid for ARC Resources (ARX:TSX), whittling down my #COM Mafia basket to just 5 stocks (after losing MEG Energy to Cenovus late last year.

I agree with the excellent commentary from (a consistent bull on Canadian energy assets for as long as I have followed him) on the deal:

The previous week saw Agnico Eagle swoop on my namesake Rupert Resources (RUP:TSX), one of the development assets sitting within the 🐿️’s ShinyAcorns™ basket.

Am still working on a ‘like for like’ replacement for both portfolios.

What are the bets placed?

BUSHY™ had a strong week and continues its attempt to reel in its end-February high water mark.

Since inception (1/1/25), BUSHY™ has been compounding at over 25% with less than 9% annualized weekly volatility.

As part of my research for the weekend note on the new China basket, I spent some time looking at the multi-asset portfolios that I track to figure out how investors that I respect are positioned in China equities and elsewhere (TLDR - very light still!).

But there were some other interesting observations to make:

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship covered the Asian Life market - specifically AIA (1299.HK) and Ping An Insurance (2318.HK). Check it out via the link below 👇:

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Gradually…

The cash-heavy BUSHY™ lagged the S&P again last week but another week of gradually closing the gap with its end of February high water mark.

Before we get to the portfolio review, we need to discuss some further portfolio additions - modest ones, the Strait is still shut after all….

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In case you missed it, the weekend flagship note came out on Friday morning. In it we launched our refreshed basket of European defense stocks.

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Pulled back into the Pack

The month-do-date finviz risk board (below) is not really what the 🐿️ wanted to see having de-grossed so aggressively (ex-Energy) starting in mid-February.

Even with another significant mark down week for the hedge book, BUSHY™ managed to add 29bps for the week.

We will come back to the portfolio review after going through some immediate ‘Start the Week’ action items:

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Am sending out this note early as it was written before the breakdown of the Islamabad talks.

In case you missed it, the flagship note this weekend focused on global opportunities in the world of closed-end funds.

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In May 1993 - roughly eight months after even multiple hikes (to a back-breaking 15% policy rate) could not prevent Sterling from crashing out of the ERM on “Black Wednesday” - a BBC journalist asked UK Chancellor Norman Lamont which he regretted more - prematurely claiming to see “green shoots of recovery” in the UK economy a few months earlier (amid a rough ongoing recession) or “singing in his bath”.

This was a tabloid reference to him reportedly belting out show tunes through the soap suds while the ERM crisis unfolded. Lamont’s deadpan retort - “Je ne regrette rien”. Lamont took a lot of flack for that. Not deterred, the🐿️ is also going to channel his inner Edith Piaf this weekend.

The BUSHY™ ‘beta’ portfolio lost 4bps while its Vanguard target date benchmark advanced 3.47% on the back of last week’s ceasefire / ‘Mission Accomplished’ rally.

This is what will happen to a portfolio when you have cut significant length in equities without making corresponding cuts to the hedge book. The Strait is still not freely navigable. No regrets. The risk / reward of piling into risk assets so close to all time highs with the current backdrop feels poor.

Before we get to the weekly portfolio reviews, I want to follow up on the execution plan for those closed end funds.

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In case you missed it, the weekend note was a deep dive (in collaboration my podcasting partner Benny) on the SpaceX IPO and its broader implications of this jumbo transaction on markets.

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BUSHY™ is still in the process of slowly clawing its way back to the beta portfolio’s YTD high water mark set in late February. Having de-grossed aggressively (starting mid February), it is not surprising that we underperformed during last week’s strong rally in risk assets.

Quite comfortable staying underweight risk. At risk of repetition, the portfolio will stay that way until the Straits of Hormuz are re-opened. I see no upside in being tempted to jump the gun.

BUSHY™ closed Q1 +8.43% - 9.57% ahead of the Vanguard benchmark and 13.07% ahead of the S&P 500 - adding 18 bps in the first 2 trading days of Q2.

BUSHY™ and Acorn Review

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In case you missed it, I used the weekend note to look beyond the Iran war and the investment opportunities related to ruggedizing Australian’s sovereign resilience. Am pleased to say that I under-promised and over-delivered on getting out this ‘Start the Week’ note ahead of the ASX open on Monday.

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In the context of another tough week for risk assets (outside of energy and precious metals), BUSHY™ eked out a positive +0.37% return for the week.

Pretty happy with that (although the portfolio is still well below the high water mark set in late February). Full BUSHY™ and Acorn review after we lay out the specifics of our…[drum roll please]…

‘Straya Ruggedization Basket

As mentioned in the weekend note, we are still in ‘shopping list’ mode here at Blind Squirrel Macro. The construction of our ‘Straya Ruggedization Basket (‘SRB’) falls into that category. Strapping on a bunch of risk here - however sound the thesis - does not make a great deal of sense while the Strait is still closed.

Let’s start with what is NOT going into the SRB. The 🐿️ was guilty of pulling up the charts of Santos and Origin Energy as semi-direct plays on the Aussie LNG export angle when hostilities in the Persian Gulf broke out. But this rodent does not fight governments.

There are easier energy plays around the world. For example Canadian E&Ps now have wind at their back (with government and ‘Maple 8’ backing) in support of their energy export ambitions. By contrast, the Gladstone LNG complex is most likely facing margin headwinds from Canberra’s energy security policies in the coming years.

Lynas is indeed a tailor-made play on the US defense supply chain plus Japanese capital theme. However, the risk / reward here does not meet my requirements. LYC is up 160% since last summer and already trading at over 9x FY28 revenues with plenty of execution risk in Texas ahead of it. Arguably its chart still makes a bullish technical case but way too much fundamental risk for me.

The small / micro-cap (single project) opportunities I touched on in the Saturday note (Strike Energy, Ardea Resources, NeuRizer and International Graphite) are really for the gambling class - well, you know who you are!

The SRB Framework

Much of Australia’s ruggedization capex drive needs to be built around existing in-country expertise and regulatory frameworks. I was looking for listed companies of reasonable substance and scale that are well positioned to be focal points for investment under the “Future Made in Australia” framework.

For me, the low-hanging fruit falls into 3 categories:

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In case you missed it, I used the weekend note to re-underwrite each position in the Acorn short book. In a world in which maintaining length in risk assets seems like a dangerous pursuit, a short book is an important insurance policy 👇.

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PSA🚨: Blind Squirrel Macro has been de-grossing for well over a month. Making money on the portfolios’ hedges in January was ‘the tell’ for the 🐿️. I think we are now at the stage that every single day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed you should sell some more long positions. That’s what we will be doing.

Sunday night update (Monday late morning my time): This futures open looks SPECTACULARLY COMPLACENT. Act accordingly.

Listen, I get it: “What if it all blows over? Risk assets will rip and I will be playing catch-up for the rest of 2026!”. Simple. Take out some FOMO insurance.

We are already running out of diesel here in Australia. The government is talking about fuel rationing plans that could be in force in the next few weeks. I need to fly up to Asia at the end of the month. Fuel surcharges are one thing - I am more concerned about outright flight cancellations.

Australia refines approximately 20,000 barrels per day of conventional jet fuel domestically. This meets less than 20% of the country’s aviation demand - the rest comes from international imports. These are not currently flowing. I live a long way away from most places - planes that fly down under do not have enough in the tank for the journey home…

Unsurprisingly, the airline sector has shed almost 30% of market cap since late January - well before the time that the missiles and drones started flying. Are listed airlines potentially the ultimate de-escalation trade?

What if for every few percentage points that you take down your net long exposure you add a ‘right tail’ of airline upside? You can buy 15% delta calls on - the airline ETF - for 37% implied vol. Basically pennies. An inexpensive way to dull the FOMO. Link to OptionStrat payoff model via the image below.

I will have discussed this in more detail with Benny on the Sunday show (never miss one!) but at least you are getting this before the calls open for trading!

BUSHY™ and Acorn Review

The beta portfolio lost 137bps on the week - now +7.37% year to date. We are going to be eating our own cooking. More pink tickets for BUSHY™ this week.

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In case you missed it, ‘Farmer Squirrel’ (in collaboration with ) published a new piece - with no paywall - on current opportunities in corn, cotton and wheat markets triggered by the Hormuz Crisis. Check it out 👇.

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The 🐿️ is a ‘kid of Fukuyama’. I left school in 1989. That summer, Francis Fukuyama’s original essay “The End of History?” was published in The National Interest. I was a teenager waiting tables in London to save for a pre-university tour of South America when the news of the fall of the Berlin Wall came through on the radio of the restaurant kitchen.

By the time Fukuyama’s essay had become a book - The End of History and the Last Man (1992) - I had completed my first internship in the European research department at Cazenove, a London stockbroking firm (now part of JP Morgan). Communism and fascism had been comprehensively defeated. There was no politico-economic belief system that could rival liberal democracy. We had reached history’s ‘telos’ (endpoint).

It’s been a pretty rough decade for us kids of Fukuyama. We spent 20 years patting ourselves on the back before the cracks - the GFC, opioid crisis, 2016 populism eruption etc. - became impossible to ignore. As for the core tenet that economic liberalization spawned political freedom? LOL!

The ‘triumph’ of Western liberal democracy has collided with a messy multipolar reality. Instead of our free-market utopia, we now have the return of state-directed industrial policy and the weaponization of global trade.

The geopolitical architecture we spent our careers taking for granted - anchored by a hyper-financialized Pax Americana - is being systematically dismantled. Frankly, the overt grift is pretty sickening too.

For a macro rodent conditioned by the post-Cold War peace dividend, this regime shift demands a rewiring of mental models. The world of perfectly optimized supply chains and structurally suppressed inflation (and volatility - this is even more important) is over.

Turns out that history didn’t end in 1989 after all. It just went on a long sabbatical, and is now back with a vengeance to remind us that hard assets and ‘just in case’ supply chains are pretty much all that matters.

The ongoing war in the Middle East has accelerated a major de-grossing of the BUSHY™ beta portfolio and the Acorn book that was already well underway. It started in early February. If the conflict ends up with $200 oil tipping the global economy into a recession, that risk cut was insufficiently aggressive.

It turns out that my bias towards relative economic winners in a multi-polar world actually needs someone to win.

That said, BUSHY™ only gave up 0.18% last week - OK during a pretty rough week for risk assets. The numbers look great versus benchmark and the S&P but you can’t eat relative performance. It’s time to pull the drains up!

Will do our weekly review of that portfolio and of the Acorn positions after completing the unfinished business from yesterday.

New “Malthus Ag Trade” Implementation

When thinking about structuring the “Revenge of Malthus” Ag basket, this weekend’s US attack on Kharg Island focuses the mind.

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