Third Time’s a Charm!

The 🐿️ is a glutton for punishment. I am returning to a battlefield on which I have been twice vanquished in recent years. Back in the spring of 2024, I was bemused by the fact that the AI party had arrived at the door of “the market’s most boring sector”.

While I completely understood the scale of the power demand from AI data centers, market extrapolation of the narrative appeared to have gone wild. Back then I wrote:

The following month (May ‘24) I entered the first of two unsuccessful short positions in the sector over the following twelve months. I had conceded that a couple of individual names - and - could capitalize on the boom with their unregulated asset base, I had not counted on those names dragging the rest of the sector with them.

By September, the 🐿️’s frustration was manifesting itself in the form of desperate memes after the combination of the restart announcement for “Three Mile Island” and a Fed rate cut added $17 billion of market cap to Constellation Energy in a single session - an amount equal to more than the cost to build the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia.

For most of the past two years, the sector’s schizophrenia continued. However, since the outbreak of the Iran war, the bond proxies have steadfastly refused to react to rising Treasury yields.

Traditionally, the dividend yield of the XLU offered a modest pickup over 10-year Treasury yields. Today we are looking at a negative spread of over 225bps - meaningful positive carry on a short position.

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Enter Politics…

The “political football” risk that I identified two years ago has suddenly taken center stage. And it came fast. Voters have started to join the dots in terms of the correlation between AI data center construction and rising electricity prices.

US city average electricity prices are up over 20% since the public launch of ChatGPT in November of 2022 - and you can see the footprints that drove the initial move in pricing earlier that year in chart from Kev inset above.

Recent polling suggests the US citizens would prefer to live within 10 miles of a nuclear power station than to a data center. Over 8% of August political broadcast spend ahead was on data center attack ads.

Nervous politicians have noticed and are re-trading on the tax breaks offered to lure hyperscaler investment only a matter of a few quarters ago.

State and local legislative agendas are piling up with bills seeking to restrict or delay the build out. And it is bipartisan.

Statewide bills and moratoria mostly fail - but municipal and county action appears to be sticking. 66% of the XLU constituents by market cap have a dog in the fight.

If the AI power demand story is real, why has the market treated all utilities as ‘scarcity winners’? Which parts of XLU are actually exposed to the downside when affordability politics rear their head?

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Episode 85 was recorded at 6.30 EST on Thursday 10th September, 2026. We were joined by Herve van Caloen, Founder and CIO of Mercator Investment Management. Starting his career as an analyst at Scudder, Stevens and Clark in 1985, when global investing was still in its infancy.

He later launched The PaineWebber Europe Growth Fund, the first mutual fund specializing in both Western Europe and in the former communist countries of central Europe. In the mid 1990s, Mr. van Caloen led the international investment effort at Provident Capital Management and later served as First Vice President of Schroders in New York.

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‘Start the Week’ is coming to you slightly late given the long weekend in the US.

Blind Squirrel Macro’s ‘Start The Week’ note is the weekly review of the BUSHY™ beta portfolio and updates on our ‘Acorn’ trades - anything from single stock ideas and thematic baskets to FX / Credit / Commodity ideas. This week’s edition will focus on risk management and hedging as we make plans to navigate a seasonally tough time of year.

While you are here please ensure that you are signed up directly for Benny & The Squirrel - some exciting developments in the making!

Benny & The Squirrel

Benny & The Squirrel is a twice weekly show about finance and markets. The show notes for members are hosted here on Substack.

By Benny and the Squirrel

In the weekend flagship note, the ‘🐿️20-for-20’ portfolio journey continued as we assembled our shortlist picks in the resources sector. Check it out via the link below 👇:

Autumn Hedging Plans

During my time on the sell side, the week following the Labor Day weekend in the US was one of the busiest of the year, as corporates raced to catch the post-summer capital markets issuance window before their June 30th financial statements went ‘stale’ in the second week of November.

I always found it ironic that auditing calendars and holiday plans forced issuers into one of the most seasonally choppy windows of the year from a risk perspective. Aside from seasonality, the Fall of 2026 gives us some extra risk juice in the form of a couple of ‘live’ Fed meetings, the mid-terms and the Anthropic IPO (which - the 🐿️’s astonishment - appears to be growing by the day).

Yet markets feel remarkably complacent - the dispersion trade (traders long single stock volatility against short positions at index level vol) dominates leaving the VIX and VIX (vol of vol) bumping along the floor.

Notwithstanding the kabuki theater of the ‘Three Soros Amigos’ (Bessent, Warsh and Druckenmiller) publicly squabbling about monetary policy, US Treasury volatility remains remarkable subdued.

Notwithstanding all the jumpiness about seasonality above, this window last year turned out to be a decent performance period for the BUSHY™ portfolio in 2025. It was not until closer to Halloween that we started to chop.

BUSHY™ closed on Friday exactly 150bps behind where the portfolio was in terms of YTD performance at this time in 2025.

The portfolio has clambered back out of the drawdown that started at the outset of the Iran war and accelerated after a premature call of the bottom in front month crude in early June. This drawdown maxed out at -6.43% at the end of June )(steeper than the 4.86% ‘Liberation Week’ drawdown of last year).

BUSHY™ is currently sitting with the following allocation:

So how are we planning to protect ourselves:

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Fully revamped and upgraded show notes (plus lots of bonus content and material) are now being sent out by Benny & The Squirrel directly. These notes will come out tomorrow. Please si…

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Story so far: Report 1 outlined the goals and ground rules for the🐿️’s “20-for-20” portfolio. Report 2 tackled the global financials sector, leaving us with a shortlist of 9 stocks from that sector (of which we will get to keep 5 or MAX 6).

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Atoms in Algo World

You already knew that the 🐿️ is a bit of a hard asset bull. Yet this is not a call to buy resource stocks indiscriminately. Rather it’s an attempt to identify the few resource businesses that can convert structural scarcity into durable (and fairly priced!) free cash flows across our mosaic of potential macro futures.

One of the key goals in constructing this portfolio is to learn from the ‘mistakes’ made by the ‘2026 Extrapolation Portfolio’. This imaginary basket of stocks not only added a generous slug of financials on the eve of the GFC but it also loaded up on energy and resource names just as China’s fixed asset investment boom looked like it could never end.

The fact that some of these names ended up making positive contributions to the portfolio’s total returns after 20 years (i) is flattered by the fact that the financials did so poorly and the mobile telephony margin pool migrated to the software giants and (ii) it ignores the fact that the two decade path to 2026 for resource stocks was dominated by a gut-wrenching drawdown.

The chart below shows 25 years of the CRB spot commodity index. The 100% run-up of commodities in the four years leading up to the summer of 2006 is the kind of chart that would have sucked in even the most resistant of momentum traders.

Of course the ETN tracking Bloomberg’s commodity index was launched in June 2006! As soon as ETFs launch that track your favorite themes, it’s probably time to start looking for a new theme…

After peaking and then collapsing in 2008 and then offering a partial post GFC recovery, DJP’s total return since inception only turned positive at the beginning of this year! In normal times, roll costs massacre the total returns of buy and hold investors in many commodity futures - even if is doing a pretty good job of harvesting roll yield in 2026.

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Real Assets Must be Heard Louder

Back in 2006, Energy and Materials represented about 15% of the MSCI ACWI index. Energy alone doubled from a c.7% weight in 2005 to c.13% at the time of the 2008 oil spike. Today Energy and Materials are back to 8.3% of ACWI. Information Technology (plus Alphabet, Amazon and Meta) account for 4.4x that weighting.

The 🐿️’s ‘20-for20’ portfolio will NOT be following MSCI’s benchmark. In my view, the current ACWI is the current 2046 Extrapolation Portfolio! My prior is that I expect that resources will merit as many as 5 of those valuable equal-weight slots. But they have to pass the same (thematic resilience, fundamental and value) screens as every other pick in the book.

The extrapolators of 2006 bought resource companies for growth - more tons, more barrels, more China. Resources are now a scarcity trade. We want to own them as a consequence of years of capex famine, the shortage of Tier-1 discoveries and the need for grids to be built out regardless of election (or AI) outcomes.

We also need to consider that ‘small’ matter of a monetary system whose debts likely only get resolved via debasement.

A Lot Can Happen in Two Decades

Before getting to stocks, we need to think about where the first order impacts of the theme mosaic hit the various resource sub-sectors. We will screen our resource picks through the same prism as all other “20-for-20” stocks: that mosaic of 10 (potentially overlapping) macro states of the world in 2046.

No points for pointing out that the world of ‘constrained physical capacity’ (T2) represents forceful tailwinds for almost all sub-sectors…

…however, there are interesting debates to be had:

The AI Question

In the world of cheap intelligence (T1), winning is defined by cheap electricity. The AI overlords plan to lean into nuclear and natural gas in order to satisfy demand. Data center builds and necessary grid upgrades are the bid under copper. But could this world already be ‘in the price’ of the stocks?

The (T7) world in which ‘AI economics don’t math’ is arguably still one in which copper and uranium markets remain in deficit. But you still want to be careful not to overpay for your copper stocks.

As for nuclear, sometimes a trade feels so obvious that you are obviously wrong. I think about the conversation that Benny and I had with power trader Tom Jens back in February often - “Physics vs. Equity Fairies” - definitely worth a revisit of at least the show notes if you missed it.

The chat was a major contributor to my decision to bail on uranium and take a short position in SMR play back then.

Underwriting Oil & Gas

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IMPORTANT NOTICE

Fully revamped and upgraded show notes (plus lots of bonus content and material) are now being sent out by Benny & The Squirrel directly. These notes will usually come out a few hours…

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Blind Squirrel Macro’s ‘Start The Week’ note is the weekly review of the BUSHY™ beta portfolio and updates on our ‘Acorn’ trades - anything from single stock ideas and thematic baskets to FX / Credit / Commodity ideas.

This note is also home to new trade ideas that may have been highlighted in The Drey (our member channel on Discord) or do not justify a full write-up via one of the weekly ‘flagship’ notes. For example, last week’s ‘STW’ involve a new ideas in the grains complex - those wheat calls are already +129%! This week, we look at yield sensitive exposures post Jackson Hole and ponder whether or not it may be time to get back into the uranium trade.

The ‘STW’ is delivered to inboxes at 7.30am EST on Mondays. Last week’s introduction report for the 🐿️ 20-for-20 was free for all readers. If you would like to join us on the rest of the journey, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Click the button below to claim a 30% discount (worth $135) on an annual subscription. OFFER MUST BE CLAIMED THIS WEEK!

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In the weekend flagship note, the ‘🐿️20-for-20’ portfolio journey continued as we assembled our shortlist picks among global financials. Check it out via the link below 👇:

Post Jackson Hole

Aside from some top level trolling (🎩!) of the robots by Warsh with the opening lines of his remarks…

… I think the new Fed Chair did just about enough to settle the bond vigilantes on Friday. As unlikely as it seems from a political perspective, the market seems to be happy pricing the remaining FOMC decisions of the year as ‘live’.

The words were not enough to snap the 10-year note out of their now well established downtrend. I think that long-dated yields need to see an actual hike before they start to behave.

I have no particular desire to either try and fight that trend or indeed to try and press it. I have plenty of exposure to higher yields via my allocation to CTAs within BUSHY™. Positioning within - the SocGen Trend Index replicator - feels representative. We will let the CTAs carry on doing their thing.

The Jackson Hole speech was however enough to check some of the dollar weakness we have seen since Bessent’s ‘inventory management’ announcement and subsequent ‘mini twist’ the other day.

Uranium?

The 🐿️ is a long-term uranium bull but we exited the trade in February (‘Time for a Glowing Hedge’) and entered the short position in Sam Altman’s SMR science project, .

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Episode 82 was recorded at 6.40pm EST on Sunday 30th August, 2026.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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Thanks for all the suggestions for names to go in the 🐿️ 20-for-20 screener. Keep them coming! As promised, this week we kick off Phase 2 of the project with financials.

Does a potent cocktail of personal finance bots and financial repression prove to be too much to allow banks to be solid compounders? If so, where do we hide?

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In last week’s introduction to the ‘🐿️-20-for-20’ (linked below in case you missed it), I mused on how financials represented over 22% of the S&P 500 back in the summer of 2006. Understandable - bank returns on equity were doing a decent impression of software stocks at the time.

The ‘2026 Extrapolation Portfolio’ would have sleepwalked into a 30% exposure to Citi, BofA, Goldman, AIG, Bank of China and GE (Capital)… 18 months ahead of the GFC…

Let’s not do that. Semiconductors and AI have made all of the noise in markets over the past several years. However, over the same period of time financial stocks have been quietly compounding like a beast.

And it’s a global phenomenon - Japan’s mega banks, Chinese state-owned lenders and even those much-derided European commercial banks have been delivering remarkable risk-adjusted returns. We have been enjoying many of these in BUSHY™ via (where Chinese banks have dominated attribution for 2 years) and (where European lenders have been a powerhouse) and don’t forget the bellwether Acorn position in 1615.JP (TOPIX Banks ETF).

On average, they are trading at about 2x trailing tangible book value and 12x forward earnings. Surely ‘🐿️20-for-20’ should have a full serving of that alongside all of those ‘bottleneck’ stocks and robot picks.

Yet 20 years on, who knows if the AI circular financing merry-go-round will catalyze another global credit crisis - the comparisons between data center leases and adjustable-rate mortgages are certainly offering up a rhyme.

We of course need to consider our bank picks for 2046 in the context of that ‘AI economics don’t math’ scenario - however, arguably the worlds of ‘Intelligence Abundance’ and ‘Fiscal Dominance’ are even more of a threat.

In a world where AI agents are shopping for deposit rates 24/7 what value should you place on deposit franchises? On the other side of the NIM equation, are sovereigns about to force-feed negative-real-return rates paper onto bank balance sheets - like a foie gras goose farmer?

This threat is possibly not existential - banks are a vital cog in the mechanics of financial repression - they must be allowed to survive. There is probably a put embedded within the equity value of the SIFIs. If so, the put comes at a cost to right tail outcomes (regulated ROE corridors? dividend mandates?). In any event, plumbing, regulation and trust moats should provide some protection to the bankers from those relentless AI bot swarms.

The last 5 years have seen global banks deliver remarkable equity returns with bond-like volatility. Can they truly be the steady compounders we need for 🐿️20-for-20 portfolio?

Dealing with that Bot / Goose Farmer Pincer Move

A bank’s deposit franchise is the present value of earnings from low-cost, stable funding (less servicing costs). The dirty little secret is that most of that value comes from retail depositor inattention and inertia. Most savers view filling in reams of forms for a few extra pennies of interest as poor cost/benefit.

Floating rate mortgages are adjusted within minutes of a rate hike. Capturing the same rate pick-up as a saver is a painful process of shopping around. Historically banks have only passed on 30-40 cents of every rate hike dollar to depositors. And we are talking about time deposits here, not checking accounts.

It’s not hard to imagine that many of us will soon have an AI personal finance bot that accurately forecasts how much cash you need in your checking account and constantly scans for better rates, transferring funds automatically.

Banks have invested a fortune in their digital offering to create stickiness via UX/personalization. The agents that become the interface of personal banking will not be wowed by the flashy app, they will just robotically plug into the API in the constant quest for a better rate (and they complete the form in a micro-second).

On the asset side of the balance sheet, finance ministers around the world are assembling a myriad of capital adequacy / risk-weight rules and plumbing facilities that pave the way for what many see as inevitable - the moment when, via suasion or coercion, banks become critical funders of deficits. “AI War Bonds” coming to a movie theater near you soon.

EU banks already sit on €3.6 trillion of eurozone sovereign rates paper. Domestic financial institutions already own more than half of the government debt stock in several major eurozone economies. The sovereign exposure of Italian banks is over 100% of core capital.

That bundle of payment rails, deposit insurance, liquidity, dispute resolution and habit / brand / trust is something that agents cannot replicate. Larger corporate and institutional depositors already employ automatic cash sweeps into money-market funds. JP Morgan, HSBC and BBVA’s corporate treasury customers will likely remain sticky.

Forward thinking banks are already beta-testing agentic sweep products for retail savers and SME depositors. Of course some cash will never move - Pix in Brazil and UPI in India made money movement frictionless years ago but cash deposits stayed at Itaú and HDFC.

However, in a world where cash pricing becomes transparent, credit costs become the key input to banking margins. The value of underwriting data (proprietary repayment and cash-flow histories) appreciates - the bank with better data wins good borrowers at the agent auction while rivals get picked off.

Tough to make a financial repression bull case but at least repression with inflation (which is the 🐿️ case) is also far kinder than repression with deflation! As nominal credit grows, borrowers’ real debts erode, asset quality holds, and banks earn the (regulated) spread. A better credit story than equity story!

The windfall in a financial repression world gets delivered to the banks’ capital markets and flow businesses. Nice to have, but most of that margin needs to be passed on to the capital markets bankers with their fast suits and winning smiles!

Owning banks in this world comes down to underwriting a valuation. The trouble is that most of the world’s most defensive franchises (think JP Morgan, UBS or DBS) are already trading at elevated multiples. A bank at 3x Price/Tangible Book carries more multiple risk than credit risk. Can buying here really deliver compounders for the 🐿️20-for-20 portfolio?

Last week’s introduction report for the 🐿️ 20-for-20 was free for all readers. If you would like to join us on the rest of the journey, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Click the button below to claim a 30% discount (worth $135) on an annual subscription. OFFER MUST BE CLAIMED THIS WEEK!

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Let’s pick some stocks!!…

Just as well that ‘Financials’ are not just Banks

In addition to banks, our long list of financials candidates also contains insurers, exchanges, asset managers and asset owners such as Berkshire Hathaway, Markel, Canada’s Fairfax and Sweden’s Investor. At the end of the process, we will need to be careful about how we treat these holdcos (if picked) in the context of portfolio sector and risk clustering caps.

Ultimately my key guide will be to classify selections on the basis of what kills them in a crisis but we will make the call at the end of the 🐿️20-for-20 portfolio construction process.

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Episode 81 was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 27th August, 2026. We were delighted to be joined by my pal Chase Taylor. Chase is is a busy guy. He is Founder and ‘Chief Cone’ at Pinecone Macro as well as Head of Research at Bulwark Capital Management.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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Become a paid subscriber to get the show notes including a summary, today’s slides and the audio edition - as well as the rest of the 🐿️’s tireless work!

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Blind Squirrel Macro’s ‘Start The Week’ note is the weekly review of the BUSHY™ beta portfolio and updates on our ‘Acorn’ trades - anything from single stock ideas and thematic baskets to FX / Credit / Commodity ideas.

This note is also home to new trade ideas that may have been highlighted in The Drey (our member channel on Discord) or do not justify a full write-up via one of the weekly ‘flagship’ notes. For example, this week’s ‘STW’ involves a couple of new ideas in the grains and energy complex.

The ‘STW’ is delivered to inboxes at 7.30am EST on Mondays. If you are interested in a trial of the 🐿️’s full service, please get in touch via the button below or by replying to this email.

In the weekend flagship note, the 🐿️ launched an exciting new project - an experiment in futurism. Check it out via the link below 👇 (there was no paywall on the note - any one can read it so please do share it widely):

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Another strong week for BUSHY™. The beta portfolio has now finally back at new highs for the year after having been in a drawdown since late February.

It is now over 1000 bps ahead of benchmark and 678 bps ahead of the since inception at the beginning of 2025…

…while realizing a fraction of the volatility. BUSHY™ is at YTD annualized weekly vol of 8.63% (roughly in line with the level for the full year in 2025).

Before we get to the full run down on the portfolio, I wanted to go through a couple of fresh ideas on the commodity front…

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Episode 80 was recorded at 6.45pm EST on Sunday 23rd August, 2026.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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Time for something completely different. Am riffing on an idea that my old friend and I worked on about 10 years ago. Picking 20 stocks for 20 years may be about as challenging as visualizing the middle America of 2015… as the makers of ‘Back to the Future II’ did in 1989.

But we are not attempting that - it needs to be a portfolio that works whether we have hoverboards and live in an AI-enabled utopia in which human aging and fusion has been ‘solved’ - or instead something like ‘Mad Max: Beyond The Thunderdome’, ‘Elysium’, ‘Rollerball’ or ‘The Hunger Games’ is more the vibe.

The Weekend Note:

The Visuals and Links:

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Anyway, a $100k investment in that portfolio would have turned into a ‘creditable’ $399k today - i.e. compounding at just below 7.2% per annum having stomached a 10 year drawdown between 2008 and 2018.

With such a degree of foresight, the Mosaic Portfolio - having ditched its GFC drawdown within a couple of years - would have delivered (fantasy!) returns that would have left US stocks (S&P), global stocks (ACWI) in the dust and 8.6x (!) those of the lowly Extrapolation Portfolio.

The first group to run the gauntlet of the screeners will be the financials (extracted below):

Music from Max Slorach. Find him at:

email: maxonsaxentertainment@gmail.com / web: maxonsax.com.au

Thanks for listening!

Squirrel Out!

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Time for something completely different. Am riffing on an idea that my old friend and I worked on about 10 years ago. Picking 20 stocks for 20 years may be about as challenging as visualizing the mi…

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Episode 79 was recorded at 5.30pm EST on Thursday 20th August, 2026. We were once again joined by Brent Johnson of .

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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In the weekend flagship note, the 🐿️ attempts to make amends for the worst macro call of his career. Check it out via the link below 👇:

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Q3 continues to be kind to the BUSHY™ portfolio. Last week was the 5th strongest of the year - 3 out of the other 4 were back in January - and we are now closing back in on the high water mark hit at the end of February.

The 🐿️’s beta portfolio remains behind S&P year-to-date returns (but ahead since inception at the beginning of last year. YTD annualized weekly volatility is sitting at 8.54% versus 14.5% for the S&P 500 and 21.6% for VTTHX, our Vanguard Target Date benchmark.

Before we get to the portfolio reviews, a quick rant about Gavin Baker from the 🐿️ as well as a couple of related ideas.

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Episode 78 was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Sunday 17th August, 2026.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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The Weekend Note:

Paid subscribers who would like to listen to these pods on their favorite podcast app (instead of via a browser or the Substack app) can set this up very easily. Click this link while on the device you use to listen to podcasts.

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